A Central 1 Credit Union report projects that Merritt will ultimately lose almost 700 jobs due to the mountain pine beetle epidemic.

Central 1 compared existing timber supply forecasts for the Interior and looked at accompanying job losses in a report released earlier this month. The report estimates that the shrinking harvest will lead to the loss of more than 20,000 direct and indirect jobs across the Interior and North.

As the mountain pine beetle makes its way south, it is expected to make its greatest impact in the Merritt as well as the Dawson Creek timber supply areas next year.

The B.C. Forest Service estimates that 50 per cent of the mature pine in this province has been killed by the pine beetle epidemic. While the destruction is complete in northern areas, the southern part of the province has not yet borne its full brunt.

By 2024, the epidemic will have killed 68 per cent of mature pine in B.C.

According to the report, 689 person-years of employment (that is, one year of full-time work each for 689 people) will be lost in the Merritt timber supply area due to the pine beetle.

Central 1 further projects a decline in the local population of 1,651 and 708 fewer occupied homes because of the lost jobs.

The neighbouring Kamloops timber supply area is projected to lose about 1,500 jobs, the third-highest loss in the province, behind Prince George and Williams Lake.

Central 1 predicts that the loss will result in 3,000 fewer people living in Kamloops and 1,200 fewer homes that would otherwise be occupied there.

Current woes in the forest industry are largely attributable to a lack of demand for new housing in the United States.
However, Central 1 economist Bryan Yu noted that by the time American demand recovers, B.C. could be running out of wood to supply it.

“The mountain pine beetle infestation is a long-term issue for B.C.'s forestry sector,” said Yu. “Even as new home demand inevitably rises in the U.S. to demographically consistent levels, B.C.'s forest industry will increasingly face supply constraints as the available timber declines.”

Among the hardest-hit regions is Prince George, which will lose more than 4,000 workers in the forest industry.

A statement released by Central 1 in tandem with the pine beetle report noted, “Job losses are expected across the interior region, reflecting the large geographic reach of the current infestation.

“However, less economically diverse areas with higher proportions of pine are expected to bear the brunt of the impact, including the risk of population outflows.”